ST. GEORGE — The calendar says it’s a month into fall, but there are two signs this weekend that winter is coming.
One sign is a set of alerts issued by the National Weather Service Friday saying to expect subfreezing temperatures throughout Southern Utah this weekend.
The other is the winter outlook released Wednesday by the weather service’s Climate Prediction Center. And this report says to expect a wet winter in Greater Zion thanks to the return of a warm weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean known as El Nino.
“The odds do lean toward wetter than normal, with no strong lean for temperatures,” Darren Van Cleave, the meteorologist-in-charge at the weather service’s Salt Lake City office, told St. George News.
Because of the El Nino conditions, the river of air known as the jet stream that normally steers wet winter weather more to the Pacific Northwest like Seattle and Portland instead will take aim at the southwest corner of the nation.
According to the report, there is a 40-50% chance Southern Utah will receive higher-than-normal precipitation from December to February. The report also says to expect normal temperatures this winter, meaning it’s less likely to be a winter where the St. George area gets a peek at measurable snow.
Even with above-normal rainfall, Christine Cruse with the National Weather Service’s Salt Lake City office says the area shouldn’t expect a repeat of the unprecedented previous winter that had local rivers reach their highest levels in nearly a decade.
“One thing is clear, it’s unlikely that Utah will experience another winter like the historic 2022-2023 winter,” said Cruse, adding the unpredictability of weather predicting and the fact “no two El Ninos are alike” leave a tiny chance the area could see a kind of “Groundhog Day” with rain.
“El Nino episodes themselves are categorized as weak, moderate, or strong And right now we’re looking at about a 75% to 85% chance of a strong El Nino, with a 33% chance of an El Nino approaching the strongest on record,” Cruse said, noting as far as the state is concerned, the bullseye is squarely on Greater Zion. “There is the strongest signal of above normal precipitation across portions of Southern Utah.”
Weekend weather alerts
On Friday, the weather service announced both a freeze watch and a wind advisory for lower Washington County including the St. George, Hurricane and Santa Clara-Ivins areas starting Saturday night.
The freeze watch, which means subfreezing temperatures are possible, starts late Saturday and goes through 10 a.m. Monday.
The weather service says temperatures overnight Saturday into the morning and also overnight Sunday could dip as low as 28 degrees in lower Washington County. In the bulletin, residents are advised to “protect tender plants from the cold, and to prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained or allowed to drip slowly.”
The wind advisory goes from 9 p.m. Saturday to noon Sunday with steady winds of 25-5 mph and gusts of 55 mph possible in Washington County.
As for the Iron County/Cedar City area that has already been experiencing below-freezing temperatures, there’s a slight chance of snow overnight into Saturday morning but no other precipitation expected through the weekend.
The freeze and the wind are expected to let up for Halloween Tuesday, but it will still be a chilly trick-or-treat evening with temperatures in the high 50s in Washington County and 40s in Iron County.
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