ST. GEORGE — The prospects for Southern Utah’s economy in 2023 are looking good. Unemployment rates due to the pandemic are down, several businesses relocated to the area, there are lots of jobs and housing is booming, said Ben Crabb, regional economist for the Utah Department of Workforce Services.

While those are good, there is a continuing trend of fewer children being born in the state. Meaning the generation left to perform those jobs is much older, Crabb said of the decadelong trend.

At the 27th annual What’s Up Down South convention, during his presentation on “Trends and Outlook for Southern Utah’s Economy,” Crabb said Washington County unemployment rates are at historic lows.

Although there was a huge spike in unemployment claims at the beginning of the global pandemic, eight months later those numbers returned to near normal. Currently, only 2.5% of the workforce in Washington County is claiming unemployment.

While higher than the state unemployment rate of 2.2%, it is well under the national rate where 3.4% of the American population is unemployed.

Speaking on population growth, Crabb used statistical data that showed both Washington and Iron counties experiencing their highest rates of growth in 2021. Nobody in the room appeared surprised that the majority had packed up and left California for the red hills of St. George, according to Crabb’s data showing where new residents relocated from.

“When thinking about the drivers of the regional economy, I would say it is population growth and a good mix of industrial and agriculture jobs in the area,” Crabb said.

A statistic that did elicit a response as it was digested by the crowd: the ratio of jobs available versus unemployment claims. In Utah, there are three job openings for every unemployed person.

While inflation is still on the minds of business owners and employees alike, during the last six months overall prices for core goods and food have decreased nationally. But the conflict currently happening in Ukraine is contributing to high energy costs worldwide, Crabb said.

“In the last six months the annualized rate is about 1.8% — that’s positive news,” he said. “It doesn’t mean inflation is done, but it is better than 6.5%.”

Aging Workforce

One of the reasons there are more job openings than people to fill them in Utah is the drop in birth rates. In 1960, the number of Utah children age 14 and under outnumbered retirees, or those over the age of 65, by a ratio of 3 to 1. The latest data from the 2020 census shows an even 1-to-1 ratio.

“This presents physical challenges for society as the population ages,” Crabb said. “Challenges to provide the services retirees need, such as pensions, healthcare and other services, and they need to be produced and paid for by the working population.”

This is not only a problem in The Beehive State — national statistics show the problem is worse. In 1960, nationally there were four children born for every death. Currently, more people are dying in the United States than are being born, with -1.8 births per death.

“Utah dipped below in the late 20-teens,” Crabb said. “In both instances, the fertility rate is negative.”

There are options to remedy the problem, Crabb said, many of them controversial. The government could incentivize childbirth, employees could choose to work past the age of 65, the country could allow for more immigration or employers could automate more jobs to artificial intelligence.

“Or let the economy shrink,” Crabb joked. “But that doesn’t sound so good.”

In 2022, Utah reported a gain of more than 36,000 jobs from the previous year, according to a news release sent to St. George News. Industries reporting the most gains are as follows: construction (12,700 jobs); trade, transportation, utilities (9,400 jobs); and education and health services (9,300 jobs). 

There were two industries reporting job losses, financial activities (-3,300 jobs); and professional/business services (-300 jobs).

“Utah ends the year in a strong economic position,” said Mark Knold, chief economist at Utah Department of Workforce Services. “All of 2022 will be categorized as a robust economic year for Utah. This is the launching point for Utah’s 2023 economy.”

Utah’s non-farm payroll employment for Dec. 2022 increased 2.4% during the past 12 months, with the state adding more than 40,000 jobs since Dec. 2021. Utah’s current job count stands at 1,689,800.

In a news release issued Friday by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, the government said that nationwide employers added 517,000 jobs in Dec. 2022 and that the unemployment rate dipped to 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.

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